***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.9 26.9 27.8 -0.5 43.8 44.6 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 25.2 25.8 27.1 -1.2 34.3 36.9 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 25.5 26.3 27.8 -0.9 38.4 40.0 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 21.3 21.3 26.1 0.4 55.5 53.8 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.3 26.3 -0.8 40.1 41.5 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 27.5 27.2 24.7 0.1 51.0 50.6 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 25.2 26.1 27.4 -0.6 40.9 42.4 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.5 24.4 -1.1 36.5 38.3 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 25.9 26.6 26.7 -0.8 39.1 40.6 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.7 25.1 -0.8 40.3 41.5 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 26.0 26.6 26.4 -1.2 35.5 37.6 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 25.3 25.9 25.6 -1.4 33.0 35.6 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 26.2 26.9 25.7 -1.3 32.8 35.9 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.2 26.4 26.2 -0.6 42.8 43.6 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 28.6 28.8 28.7 0.5 57.4 55.4 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 27.1 27.9 26.2 -0.9 38.1 40.0 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 24.6 25.2 26.7 -1.0 36.2 38.8 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.8 24.4 -0.6 42.5 43.3 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 25.0 25.6 27.3 -1.2 34.3 36.8 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 23.2 22.1 22.5 -0.6 42.2 43.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.0 26.8 27.6 -0.6 42.2 43.2 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 25.1 25.8 26.8 -0.9 37.9 40.4 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 25.1 25.9 27.6 -1.1 36.6 38.6 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 27.4 26.1 26.3 -0.7 41.3 42.3 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.3 26.7 -0.2 46.8 47.1 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 26.1 26.6 25.3 -1.3 32.5 35.6 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.8 27.3 -0.2 46.9 47.3 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.8 27.2 0.4 56.2 54.3 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.5 23.6 -0.6 42.3 43.1 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 25.2 25.9 27.4 -1.0 37.0 39.0 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------