***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.0 25.0 -0.6 42.8 44.7 23.1 24.7 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.9 23.6 24.5 -1.0 37.0 40.6 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 22.8 23.8 25.1 -0.8 39.9 42.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.7 23.5 0.1 51.7 51.1 15.9 17.5 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 23.2 24.4 23.5 -0.6 42.1 44.8 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.6 23.8 21.6 0.0 49.4 50.3 22.3 23.9 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.6 23.6 24.8 -0.7 41.2 43.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.4 21.8 -0.9 38.6 42.3 11.9 13.4 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.9 23.6 -0.7 40.9 43.9 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.5 23.6 22.5 -0.7 41.5 44.5 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 22.9 23.9 23.3 -0.8 39.6 43.2 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 22.0 22.8 23.1 -1.1 36.8 41.0 22.4 24.0 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 25.6 23.9 22.4 -0.9 39.1 43.0 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.9 23.1 -0.7 40.7 43.3 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.8 24.9 0.5 56.3 53.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 26.3 24.9 23.2 -0.6 42.8 45.6 24.0 25.6 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.2 22.9 24.2 -0.9 38.1 41.4 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.7 22.9 21.9 -0.6 42.6 45.2 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 22.7 23.4 24.7 -1.1 36.7 40.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 17.7 18.8 19.5 -0.7 40.5 43.7 18.1 19.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 22.9 24.1 24.4 -0.7 41.7 44.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.1 23.6 24.2 -0.9 38.5 41.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 22.8 23.7 24.9 -0.9 38.4 41.8 23.2 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 22.5 23.6 23.3 -0.7 41.7 44.3 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.3 23.5 -0.3 46.1 47.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.8 22.8 -0.9 39.1 42.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.2 24.3 -0.3 45.6 46.7 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 23.6 25.6 24.1 0.3 53.8 52.5 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.1 18.2 20.9 -0.7 41.1 44.1 17.5 18.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.6 24.8 -0.9 38.9 41.9 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------