***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 25.5 25.9 26.7 -0.8 35.0 37.8 25.8 26.7 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 25.3 25.3 26.2 -1.3 25.3 29.9 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 25.4 25.6 26.7 -1.2 29.3 33.2 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.5 24.8 -0.2 45.4 45.9 18.9 19.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 26.0 26.3 25.0 -1.1 30.0 33.8 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 25.0 25.4 23.1 -0.6 38.4 40.7 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 25.1 25.4 26.5 -0.9 32.6 36.3 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 14.2 14.1 23.1 -1.5 23.9 28.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 25.5 25.7 25.4 -1.2 29.0 32.8 25.9 26.6 27.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 25.3 25.5 23.9 -1.2 29.3 33.2 25.6 26.5 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 25.6 25.6 25.0 -1.5 24.3 28.8 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 24.8 24.6 24.3 -1.8 20.1 25.0 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 25.9 25.8 24.2 -1.6 21.9 26.9 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 25.4 25.6 25.1 -0.9 33.6 36.7 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.2 26.9 -0.1 48.0 47.6 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 26.6 26.7 24.8 -1.2 27.4 31.6 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 24.6 24.6 25.8 -1.2 27.1 31.7 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 24.5 24.7 23.2 -1.0 31.3 35.0 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 25.0 24.9 26.3 -1.4 25.2 29.8 25.4 26.2 27.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 20.5 20.6 21.1 -1.1 29.2 33.4 20.8 21.6 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 25.5 25.8 26.2 -1.0 32.1 35.4 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 25.1 25.2 25.9 -1.1 28.4 32.9 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 25.2 25.2 26.6 -1.3 27.8 32.0 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 25.0 25.2 25.1 -1.0 31.5 35.0 25.3 26.1 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.2 25.4 -0.6 38.2 40.2 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.0 -1.7 20.2 25.6 26.1 26.9 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 25.4 25.9 26.1 -0.5 39.2 41.1 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.2 25.7 -0.2 45.9 46.1 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 19.9 20.0 22.4 -1.1 30.4 34.2 20.2 21.0 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 25.2 25.3 26.4 -1.2 28.4 32.5 25.5 26.4 27.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------