***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 13.5 28.4 22.7 289.1 91.7 78.3 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 15.7 32.4 22.1 304.9 92.9 82.7 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 15.3 34.2 25.5 354.6 95.0 83.5 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 13.5 23.8 16.8 213.0 85.5 70.9 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 8.8 20.3 21.9 315.4 93.0 81.5 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 9.6 19.1 19.6 246.9 89.4 76.2 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 18.7 45.2 22.4 307.4 92.9 81.5 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 19.2 41.7 27.9 311.3 92.9 87.7 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 15.5 40.1 25.1 348.6 94.5 85.4 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 13.0 27.4 28.6 309.6 92.7 86.4 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 11.2 28.7 22.7 333.4 94.0 82.8 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 7.7 16.2 23.0 352.5 94.7 87.7 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 9.1 18.5 18.9 286.2 91.4 82.9 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 20.4 44.5 32.8 340.9 94.4 87.2 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 11.6 8.8 126.0 72.4 53.5 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 9.7 21.3 19.2 294.1 92.1 81.1 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 14.9 29.7 21.6 296.9 92.4 83.7 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 18.9 41.0 31.3 305.9 92.5 87.1 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 15.2 35.2 24.2 321.0 93.6 83.5 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 15.1 28.0 25.6 245.5 89.2 84.5 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 13.9 37.0 25.2 354.1 94.8 84.1 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 18.2 41.3 24.5 314.2 93.3 84.0 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 15.7 35.6 27.2 346.5 94.8 85.4 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 17.5 39.3 30.7 349.2 94.6 87.0 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 8.9 13.7 17.5 210.1 84.9 70.8 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 7.3 16.5 18.6 333.6 94.4 87.0 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 16.1 25.4 19.0 226.4 86.2 72.0 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 8.2 13.1 16.0 205.3 84.3 69.3 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 18.0 33.7 28.3 271.7 90.9 85.2 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 12.6 26.3 23.3 316.5 93.4 81.9 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------