***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.2 14.3 10.6 117.4 70.8 45.6 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 12.5 10.5 116.9 70.7 50.1 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.9 14.9 10.3 110.8 68.9 47.4 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 4.3 20.6 11.7 115.4 70.4 41.0 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.3 13.5 9.4 99.7 65.9 40.9 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.8 16.7 12.6 108.7 68.5 44.5 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.7 13.2 10.5 119.6 71.3 46.2 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 7.0 22.2 9.0 85.4 61.1 40.5 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.7 12.6 9.7 97.4 65.1 40.5 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 4.1 14.9 10.2 90.7 62.8 40.8 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 3.3 12.6 8.2 94.7 64.1 39.8 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.2 13.4 7.7 89.4 62.6 38.8 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.1 16.3 10.5 111.5 69.0 43.2 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.4 12.4 94.2 64.0 47.1 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.1 13.3 11.5 131.8 74.3 43.1 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 3.7 15.8 9.9 108.7 68.3 39.8 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.3 14.8 10.8 116.1 70.6 48.9 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 14.6 11.7 90.3 62.4 42.9 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.6 14.5 10.1 110.4 69.0 49.8 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.6 12.6 93.8 63.2 47.2 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.5 12.8 9.5 101.1 66.2 41.5 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.9 15.5 11.4 112.0 69.3 48.6 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.3 9.7 102.4 66.5 48.9 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.1 10.8 90.9 62.8 43.5 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.9 16.2 12.1 120.1 71.5 47.8 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.9 13.8 9.0 115.5 70.3 43.0 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.8 15.2 11.7 117.7 70.9 47.7 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.3 14.6 11.7 122.3 71.9 40.6 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.2 19.8 12.4 90.4 62.1 45.1 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.3 16.7 10.8 120.9 71.6 49.1 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------