***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 2.9 12.3 10.7 115.2 70.1 47.8 2.5 5.6 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.5 13.8 11.0 128.9 73.2 51.5 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.3 12.2 10.5 110.9 68.7 50.4 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.7 14.7 11.7 107.0 68.0 43.7 3.2 7.4 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.7 9.9 9.9 98.4 65.5 43.6 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.5 8.6 11.7 91.6 64.0 44.8 2.7 5.2 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.3 16.3 11.4 133.7 74.2 51.6 2.6 6.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.8 14.9 10.7 89.8 62.2 42.8 4.4 9.4 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.3 7.9 9.4 90.4 62.9 43.9 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.5 9.1 10.9 87.3 61.4 43.8 3.3 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.2 9.0 8.8 94.0 64.0 41.2 2.4 5.2 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 3.0 9.2 8.5 90.0 62.9 40.5 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.3 8.2 10.1 96.3 65.3 46.0 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.2 15.1 13.3 100.8 65.6 50.6 3.3 7.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.6 6.7 9.0 89.4 64.0 40.3 1.5 3.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 2.2 9.6 9.8 98.0 65.6 42.6 2.3 5.1 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.6 16.9 12.1 134.1 74.3 53.2 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 9.8 12.6 89.3 61.4 47.3 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.9 16.1 10.9 124.0 72.1 50.5 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 15.9 15.0 96.1 63.6 49.5 4.9 9.8 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.0 10.0 9.4 96.4 64.8 45.7 3.1 6.0 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 17.4 12.8 129.1 73.2 52.1 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.7 12.0 10.8 116.0 70.0 50.3 2.5 5.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.3 11.3 94.0 63.3 48.5 2.4 5.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.3 13.1 11.8 115.3 70.4 49.1 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.1 7.6 9.4 100.9 66.6 44.4 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.3 13.4 11.5 118.1 70.8 49.2 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 1.9 7.2 10.3 95.5 65.2 40.2 1.9 4.0 7.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.6 18.0 13.9 93.0 62.4 49.2 5.9 11.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.7 13.8 10.9 124.4 72.2 50.9 3.1 6.4 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------