***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-13.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 58.4 70.4 56.6 154.4 79.1 71.2 23.7 36.4 51.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 59.0 71.1 56.9 160.0 80.9 72.5 28.5 40.0 53.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 69.0 86.2 61.3 167.0 82.5 75.9 29.9 43.7 60.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 72.3 81.4 53.1 140.7 75.7 64.0 33.0 48.5 66.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 59.2 71.7 53.7 154.6 79.3 71.1 24.0 36.9 52.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 53.0 60.5 55.8 133.6 73.9 64.2 21.7 34.4 50.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 60.4 76.0 57.3 163.1 81.4 72.2 26.5 39.2 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 97.7 110.5 56.3 138.7 75.4 68.9 48.1 68.5 91.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 63.3 73.5 55.6 150.2 78.3 71.2 30.1 42.9 57.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 67.7 76.5 60.8 141.5 76.2 69.8 32.7 46.7 62.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 58.5 67.7 50.9 153.2 79.0 71.8 25.3 37.2 51.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 54.3 64.1 47.0 148.3 77.7 70.4 23.6 35.3 49.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 54.3 65.2 50.6 151.6 78.6 70.4 24.0 35.7 49.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 83.7 97.6 74.0 148.9 78.8 71.1 42.8 58.8 77.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 31.4 43.6 41.3 123.2 70.6 58.1 14.8 25.1 38.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 57.0 67.5 48.8 146.2 77.2 67.7 23.7 36.4 51.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 60.2 74.0 58.3 160.4 80.8 71.7 30.2 41.8 55.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 51.6 76.1 67.2 136.4 75.1 67.4 32.5 46.8 63.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 63.5 78.0 59.2 162.8 81.8 73.9 30.1 42.3 56.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 75.8 86.8 67.6 132.3 74.2 67.4 37.4 54.0 73.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 60.9 75.8 56.5 157.6 79.9 73.2 25.2 38.6 54.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 67.1 84.4 63.9 162.5 82.2 71.4 34.8 47.7 62.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 63.2 78.4 62.1 165.1 82.6 75.3 29.6 41.9 56.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 72.4 87.3 65.3 147.4 78.1 70.1 37.0 52.0 69.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 60.3 73.9 58.4 150.4 78.2 69.0 24.0 37.6 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 43.6 56.8 47.6 162.0 81.0 72.0 20.0 29.5 40.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 64.3 76.3 57.9 148.0 77.6 69.1 27.6 41.7 58.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 44.6 49.5 48.9 135.7 74.3 62.6 19.8 29.6 41.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 93.5 106.7 69.4 134.1 74.7 66.9 50.6 69.7 91.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 55.7 67.4 58.5 162.5 81.4 72.8 26.2 37.0 49.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------