***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 14.1 13.9 16.5 -1.5 20.0 24.2 14.6 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 12.8 12.1 15.6 -2.2 10.7 13.4 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 15.6 15.0 16.0 -2.0 12.1 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 90 10 0 100 11.1 10.8 14.1 -1.9 15.7 18.6 12.3 13.5 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 11.5 11.0 14.1 -2.0 11.8 14.7 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 11.5 11.4 13.1 -1.4 22.3 24.8 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 97 3 0 100 13.2 12.6 15.7 -2.3 10.4 13.0 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 83 17 0 100 6.8 6.5 12.5 -1.7 16.0 18.9 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 12.9 12.0 14.4 -2.2 6.7 9.5 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 13.0 12.4 12.8 -2.0 9.0 12.1 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 12.5 11.8 13.5 -2.2 8.1 10.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 86 14 0 100 11.0 10.6 13.1 -1.9 14.4 17.0 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 11.8 11.4 12.9 -1.9 12.1 14.7 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 13.6 12.8 14.1 -2.3 7.6 10.3 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 99 1 0 100 13.8 13.2 15.2 -2.2 10.1 12.4 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 95 5 0 100 13.2 12.9 13.6 -1.9 12.9 15.5 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 13.8 13.3 15.2 -2.2 10.4 13.0 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 98 2 0 100 11.2 10.5 11.8 -1.9 8.2 11.2 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 13.5 12.9 15.6 -2.3 9.7 12.5 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 7.6 7.2 10.1 -1.9 10.6 13.3 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 12.7 12.2 15.6 -2.1 10.7 13.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 12.7 11.7 15.2 -2.5 7.3 9.7 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 99 1 0 100 13.0 12.3 15.5 -2.3 8.5 11.4 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 13.2 12.4 13.9 -2.2 7.4 10.1 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 13.3 12.9 15.3 -1.5 18.1 22.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 12.8 12.9 13.2 -1.1 26.3 29.0 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 13.6 13.2 15.8 -1.5 19.6 23.6 14.3 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 11.9 11.6 14.7 -2.0 14.0 16.4 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 10.7 9.5 11.2 -2.2 6.4 8.8 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 13.5 12.9 16.0 -2.2 11.3 14.4 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------