***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 12.7 12.3 14.8 -2.1 15.9 20.9 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 12.2 11.7 14.7 -2.2 15.3 20.0 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 14.3 13.8 14.6 -2.1 14.6 19.6 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 9.5 8.6 12.7 -2.2 10.9 15.9 10.5 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 11.1 10.5 12.6 -2.1 12.6 17.8 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 10.7 10.6 11.9 -1.3 23.0 27.8 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 85 15 0 100 12.4 12.0 14.7 -2.2 15.3 20.0 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.9 5.6 11.4 -1.6 19.9 24.9 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 12.5 11.9 12.9 -2.0 14.0 19.3 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 12.5 12.2 11.6 -1.7 17.2 22.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 12.0 11.6 12.5 -1.8 15.7 20.7 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 10.6 10.2 12.2 -1.8 16.2 21.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 82 18 0 100 11.6 11.2 11.7 -1.8 14.3 19.6 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 13.0 12.6 13.0 -1.9 16.3 21.3 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 13.6 13.0 13.3 -2.2 11.8 16.3 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 12.9 12.5 12.4 -1.8 15.6 20.9 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 13.1 12.8 14.4 -1.8 18.9 23.4 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 11.0 10.7 11.0 -1.7 17.8 22.7 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 12.6 12.2 14.6 -2.2 15.0 19.8 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 7.4 7.3 10.0 -1.4 23.4 28.5 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 12.2 11.7 13.9 -2.1 13.7 19.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 12.1 11.8 14.2 -2.0 16.2 21.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 84 16 0 100 12.1 11.7 14.3 -2.1 14.5 19.4 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 12.7 12.2 12.8 -1.9 16.0 21.1 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 12.4 11.8 13.2 -2.1 13.4 18.5 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 11.8 11.4 12.0 -1.9 15.0 20.4 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 12.0 11.5 14.0 -2.0 15.5 20.5 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 11.2 10.5 13.2 -2.1 12.5 17.5 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 9.9 9.5 10.6 -1.6 18.6 23.6 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 12.5 11.9 14.8 -2.2 14.7 19.4 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------