***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 10.9 11.4 14.8 -0.7 35.3 38.8 11.3 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 10.6 11.1 14.7 -0.9 32.4 36.5 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 13.0 13.5 14.6 -0.8 33.9 38.1 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.2 12.5 -1.0 30.0 36.4 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 9.8 10.1 12.4 -0.8 32.9 38.6 10.1 11.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.0 11.5 -0.3 44.0 46.6 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 11.2 11.6 14.7 -0.8 32.9 37.2 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.2 11.3 -0.3 43.0 45.7 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 11.0 11.4 12.7 -0.7 34.2 39.2 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 10.9 11.6 11.5 -0.5 39.8 43.3 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 10.7 11.2 12.3 -0.6 37.4 41.9 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.2 9.7 12.0 -0.5 39.1 43.2 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.2 10.6 11.5 -0.5 37.6 42.0 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 11.6 12.1 13.0 -0.6 37.1 40.3 11.9 12.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.3 13.1 -1.1 28.2 34.5 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 11.5 11.9 12.1 -0.7 35.8 40.7 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 11.5 12.1 14.5 -0.6 36.8 39.7 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 9.5 10.3 10.9 -0.4 41.4 44.2 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 11.0 11.5 14.6 -0.8 32.7 36.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 6.7 9.8 -0.2 46.0 47.7 6.1 6.9 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 10.6 11.0 13.8 -0.8 33.3 38.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 10.8 11.2 14.3 -0.8 33.9 37.7 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 10.5 10.9 14.4 -0.8 33.1 37.0 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 11.2 11.7 12.8 -0.5 38.0 41.4 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 10.8 11.4 13.2 -0.7 35.3 39.8 11.3 12.2 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.7 11.7 -0.7 35.6 40.7 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 10.6 11.5 14.0 -0.6 36.7 40.2 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 10.0 10.1 12.9 -1.0 29.3 35.5 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.2 9.1 10.5 -0.3 43.1 45.4 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 11.1 11.5 14.8 -0.9 32.1 36.5 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------