***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 12.6 12.5 15.1 -1.1 19.4 25.8 12.9 13.4 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 12.1 11.8 14.8 -1.3 15.2 20.9 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 14.6 14.3 14.8 -1.2 16.0 22.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 10.0 9.6 12.9 -1.3 13.9 20.1 10.5 11.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 11.0 10.6 12.8 -1.2 14.5 21.3 11.3 11.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.5 11.9 -0.7 28.7 33.6 10.6 11.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 12.5 12.2 14.9 -1.3 15.1 20.7 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.0 5.9 11.5 -0.8 23.4 28.9 6.3 6.7 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 12.4 12.0 13.1 -1.2 12.9 20.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 12.2 12.0 11.7 -1.0 17.9 24.4 12.5 12.9 13.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 11.7 11.5 12.6 -1.1 16.3 22.9 12.1 12.5 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 10.2 10.0 12.2 -1.0 19.2 25.2 10.5 10.9 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 11.2 10.8 11.8 -1.0 16.5 23.3 11.4 11.9 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 12.9 12.6 13.1 -1.2 15.6 21.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 13.1 12.7 13.6 -1.4 11.8 17.6 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 12.7 12.4 12.4 -1.0 17.5 24.1 12.9 13.4 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 13.0 12.8 14.5 -1.1 17.7 23.5 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 10.7 10.4 11.0 -1.0 18.5 24.8 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 12.6 12.4 14.8 -1.3 14.9 20.9 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 7.0 6.9 9.8 -0.8 24.9 30.3 7.2 7.7 8.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 12.0 11.7 14.2 -1.2 14.0 21.3 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 78 22 0 100 12.0 11.7 14.4 -1.3 14.5 20.5 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 12.0 11.8 14.5 -1.3 14.4 20.6 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 12.4 12.1 12.9 -1.1 15.9 22.3 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 12.3 12.2 13.6 -1.0 18.1 24.8 12.6 13.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 11.6 11.4 12.1 -0.9 20.8 28.0 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 12.4 12.3 14.3 -1.0 20.0 26.4 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 78 22 0 100 10.9 10.6 13.3 -1.3 14.0 19.8 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 10.0 9.8 10.6 -1.0 19.2 24.6 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 12.7 12.5 15.0 -1.3 15.3 21.1 13.1 13.6 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------