***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.7 -2.4 21.1 22.8 28.3 29.7 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 97 3 0 100 26.2 26.0 25.9 -3.3 14.6 16.1 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.7 -2.4 21.8 23.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 20.4 20.6 25.2 -1.9 27.4 28.8 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.2 28.3 26.1 -1.6 30.3 31.9 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 28.9 28.8 25.3 0.2 52.7 52.7 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 96 4 0 100 25.9 25.6 25.8 -3.2 14.5 16.1 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 18.2 17.2 25.0 -0.6 42.3 43.2 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 27.3 27.4 26.5 -1.8 27.8 29.5 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.6 28.1 25.4 -1.1 36.8 38.1 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 30.1 28.5 26.1 -1.1 36.3 37.6 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 29.3 28.1 25.9 -0.8 40.5 41.5 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 30.3 29.4 26.1 -0.5 43.4 44.2 28.5 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 27.2 27.2 25.7 -1.9 27.9 29.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 27.3 27.5 26.6 -2.2 23.7 24.9 28.4 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 31.0 29.8 26.3 -0.8 39.8 40.8 29.2 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 97 3 0 100 25.5 25.1 25.4 -3.4 13.0 14.6 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 28.5 27.2 24.6 -0.9 38.7 39.8 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 95 5 0 100 25.8 25.7 26.1 -3.1 16.4 17.9 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 24.6 24.1 23.5 -0.1 48.9 49.2 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 27.0 27.2 27.0 -2.0 25.6 27.3 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 97 3 0 100 26.0 25.6 25.4 -3.3 13.5 15.1 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 26.3 26.4 26.3 -2.6 20.5 22.0 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.0 27.0 25.8 -1.6 30.8 32.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 26.9 27.1 25.8 -2.1 24.4 26.1 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 29.9 29.0 25.7 -0.6 42.6 43.4 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 26.3 26.5 26.1 -2.3 22.1 23.9 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 28.1 28.2 26.1 -1.7 29.2 30.4 28.6 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 24.1 23.0 24.1 -0.6 42.2 43.1 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 95 5 0 100 26.0 25.8 26.3 -3.1 16.2 17.6 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------