***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 22.7 23.3 24.8 -1.1 35.0 38.3 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.5 24.8 -1.2 34.9 37.6 23.3 24.9 26.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.6 24.8 -1.1 34.8 38.1 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 15.7 16.2 23.3 -1.4 31.6 36.1 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 23.5 24.2 23.4 -1.1 34.8 38.9 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.8 23.7 22.1 -0.5 42.6 45.8 23.0 24.3 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 22.8 23.3 24.8 -1.0 36.0 38.6 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.1 13.1 22.2 -0.6 41.6 44.5 12.4 13.7 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 23.0 23.7 23.6 -1.1 35.0 38.9 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 23.0 23.8 22.5 -0.9 38.5 41.9 23.3 24.7 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 23.3 24.2 23.2 -0.8 39.0 42.5 23.7 25.1 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.8 23.2 -0.7 40.6 43.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 26.1 24.8 22.8 -0.7 40.0 43.6 24.3 25.5 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.7 23.3 -0.9 37.5 40.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 23.7 23.9 23.6 -1.5 29.4 33.9 24.2 25.5 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 24.4 25.1 23.1 -0.9 38.4 42.1 24.7 26.0 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 22.5 23.1 24.6 -1.0 36.9 39.0 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.1 21.9 -0.7 40.2 42.9 22.5 23.8 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.3 24.8 -1.2 35.0 37.7 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.6 19.6 20.3 -0.4 45.2 47.1 18.6 20.0 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 23.1 23.7 24.2 -1.2 33.7 37.6 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 22.9 23.4 24.5 -1.1 35.4 37.7 23.2 24.7 26.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 22.8 23.4 24.6 -1.1 35.9 38.5 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.5 23.2 -0.9 37.7 40.5 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 23.1 23.7 23.4 -1.1 34.5 38.4 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 23.8 24.6 23.0 -0.7 41.0 44.3 24.0 25.2 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 23.0 23.6 24.1 -1.0 36.5 39.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 23.7 24.1 23.5 -1.4 31.0 35.5 24.3 25.5 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.6 18.7 21.1 -0.5 42.8 44.8 17.9 19.3 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 22.7 23.3 24.9 -1.2 34.6 37.5 23.1 24.7 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------