***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.2 24.2 -0.5 43.7 44.4 23.2 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.3 24.2 -0.5 43.8 44.3 23.4 24.8 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.3 24.3 -0.5 44.1 44.8 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.4 17.0 22.8 -0.6 42.9 44.4 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.8 24.8 22.9 -0.3 45.6 46.5 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.4 21.6 0.3 53.3 53.2 22.5 24.1 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.0 24.1 -0.5 44.4 44.9 23.0 24.4 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.0 13.6 21.7 0.1 50.8 50.9 12.1 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.4 24.5 23.2 -0.3 45.8 46.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.4 22.1 -0.1 48.8 49.1 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 25.4 24.8 22.8 -0.1 48.9 49.4 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 24.6 24.1 22.6 -0.1 49.3 49.9 22.6 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 25.5 25.0 22.2 -0.1 48.8 49.5 23.5 25.1 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.5 22.8 -0.2 47.7 47.8 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.0 24.7 23.1 -0.7 41.3 43.3 24.0 25.4 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 26.2 25.5 22.6 -0.1 48.1 48.9 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.4 23.5 23.9 -0.4 45.3 45.7 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.2 23.7 21.5 0.0 50.4 50.3 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.1 24.3 -0.5 44.2 44.7 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 20.3 20.0 19.8 0.3 53.4 52.8 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.6 24.5 23.8 -0.5 44.1 45.0 23.6 25.0 26.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.1 23.9 -0.4 44.6 45.1 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.3 24.2 -0.4 45.3 45.7 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.2 22.8 -0.2 47.9 48.0 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.3 22.9 -0.5 44.3 45.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 25.3 24.8 22.3 0.0 49.5 50.1 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.3 24.3 23.5 -0.4 45.0 45.5 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.0 24.8 23.0 -0.6 42.4 44.2 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.5 19.2 20.6 0.2 52.4 51.9 17.6 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.1 24.3 -0.5 43.4 44.0 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------