***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 25.1 24.9 25.1 -1.7 21.4 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 24.8 24.6 24.9 -1.9 19.1 22.3 25.5 26.3 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 25.1 24.9 25.2 -1.7 21.5 25.0 25.6 26.4 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 18.2 18.1 23.7 -1.7 21.0 25.0 18.8 19.6 20.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 25.8 25.7 24.0 -1.4 24.4 28.5 26.2 27.1 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 26.2 25.4 22.8 -0.5 40.4 42.9 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 24.6 24.4 24.9 -1.8 19.7 22.9 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.5 22.8 -0.8 33.7 37.4 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 25.3 25.2 24.3 -1.5 23.7 27.8 25.7 26.5 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 25.2 25.3 23.2 -1.1 29.6 33.5 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 25.6 25.7 23.9 -1.1 29.7 33.8 25.9 26.7 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 25.0 25.1 23.8 -0.9 32.0 35.9 25.2 26.0 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.3 23.5 -0.9 33.1 36.7 26.2 27.1 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 24.9 25.0 23.8 -1.3 26.9 30.2 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 25.7 25.5 24.3 -1.9 18.7 22.3 26.3 27.1 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 26.7 26.7 23.8 -1.0 30.5 34.4 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 24.1 24.0 24.6 -1.8 20.1 23.3 24.7 25.6 26.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 24.3 24.6 22.5 -0.9 32.2 35.6 24.6 25.4 26.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 24.6 24.4 25.0 -1.8 20.0 23.3 25.2 26.1 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.0 21.1 -0.5 39.9 42.6 20.7 21.5 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 25.3 25.1 24.9 -1.6 21.8 25.7 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 24.6 24.4 24.6 -1.8 19.7 23.0 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 24.8 24.7 25.0 -1.6 22.4 25.7 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 24.8 24.8 23.8 -1.2 27.4 30.9 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 25.2 25.1 23.9 -1.6 22.3 26.1 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 25.9 26.0 23.6 -0.9 33.5 37.0 26.0 26.8 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 25.0 24.9 24.5 -1.5 22.9 26.4 25.4 26.3 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 26.0 25.8 24.1 -1.7 21.4 25.3 26.4 27.2 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 19.9 20.2 21.8 -0.7 35.8 38.8 20.0 20.9 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 24.7 24.5 25.1 -1.9 19.4 22.6 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------