***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9.3 12.2 13.0 149.0 77.3 66.2 2.1 4.5 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 14.5 13.8 134.6 74.6 58.0 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 12.4 16.1 13.9 161.3 79.3 68.8 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.7 8.2 92.8 63.5 50.8 2.2 5.0 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 6.5 8.5 99.3 65.0 53.4 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.7 5.6 53.8 49.0 37.3 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.6 16.6 13.3 128.7 73.3 57.9 2.4 6.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.5 7.0 67.1 54.0 45.2 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.8 11.9 9.7 111.5 68.8 56.7 2.2 5.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.9 8.1 9.5 92.8 62.6 52.7 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.3 6.0 73.1 55.7 45.5 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.3 3.5 4.5 51.9 47.0 38.0 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.1 3.1 3.9 44.2 44.2 36.1 1.8 4.0 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 18.2 21.8 15.3 140.7 75.6 65.1 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.8 7.4 90.9 63.2 48.9 1.7 4.0 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.4 4.9 59.7 50.5 40.6 2.1 4.3 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.5 17.4 15.9 156.8 78.5 66.4 2.8 6.2 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.3 13.5 12.4 110.3 67.9 57.6 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 14.5 14.1 142.8 76.1 60.5 2.3 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.8 7.0 10.1 78.7 58.6 50.2 1.8 4.8 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.0 11.6 9.8 122.6 71.6 60.3 2.2 4.9 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.2 24.6 16.7 177.3 81.7 68.9 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 13.3 16.8 15.2 157.5 78.8 67.1 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.0 14.3 14.0 140.1 75.3 63.9 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.9 9.1 11.9 121.0 71.4 60.8 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.2 2.9 33.8 37.8 31.3 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.6 14.4 13.3 133.2 74.0 62.6 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.8 6.8 85.5 61.0 47.6 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.7 12.9 12.0 100.6 65.3 55.6 3.1 7.0 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.6 12.2 14.4 147.2 76.9 61.8 2.7 5.1 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------