***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.4 16.1 7.0 93.9 64.4 42.0 5.5 10.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.8 14.1 8.3 96.1 63.9 40.9 3.9 8.6 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.4 16.8 7.3 87.6 61.9 42.4 4.8 10.7 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.3 18.5 7.5 103.1 67.2 44.4 4.9 10.2 17.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 4.9 19.0 8.0 105.4 67.9 45.8 4.7 9.9 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.5 15.5 12.8 105.7 68.3 49.6 4.1 8.3 14.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 3.1 11.3 9.0 100.3 65.5 41.6 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.1 28.9 10.5 106.6 67.2 48.8 9.4 17.3 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.2 20.9 8.7 104.9 67.9 47.3 6.0 11.6 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.5 22.7 10.9 107.9 67.8 49.0 6.6 12.9 21.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.5 17.6 7.6 107.4 68.0 45.0 5.5 10.2 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 14.0 7.7 102.2 66.4 45.9 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.0 14.6 8.6 96.0 65.4 46.6 3.5 7.9 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.8 24.5 11.7 110.4 68.0 46.3 6.5 13.1 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.9 8.1 7.6 103.1 67.2 41.7 1.6 3.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.5 15.2 7.7 101.2 66.4 45.1 3.3 7.8 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.3 13.0 9.0 97.9 64.9 42.1 4.6 8.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 14.0 17.6 13.4 109.2 67.7 51.6 6.2 10.8 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 4.5 13.7 8.1 96.8 63.9 41.4 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 10.1 23.2 14.5 107.0 66.8 51.2 10.1 15.6 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 5.6 17.6 6.9 94.5 64.9 45.6 5.1 10.5 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.6 14.3 8.7 94.4 63.3 42.4 5.1 9.4 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.8 18.9 8.7 106.8 67.0 43.9 5.8 11.0 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.6 22.7 10.8 100.1 65.2 47.2 7.3 13.8 23.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 5.1 18.2 8.0 94.7 65.1 44.9 4.7 10.4 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.5 7.0 96.4 65.1 45.4 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 4.8 18.1 8.7 98.5 65.8 42.9 5.1 10.4 18.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.9 8.0 107.1 68.2 43.1 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.9 29.0 14.5 110.4 67.8 51.8 9.3 17.0 27.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 3.5 12.2 8.3 97.4 64.6 41.5 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------