***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 6.9 7.5 77.1 57.3 37.2 2.6 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 1.6 4.6 6.3 60.5 50.6 35.8 2.0 4.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.6 8.0 8.4 81.9 59.5 40.5 2.8 5.8 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 4.3 16.4 9.7 101.1 66.0 41.8 4.8 9.6 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.0 10.7 9.9 95.0 64.4 43.1 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.8 15.7 13.0 105.6 67.1 46.6 3.5 8.1 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 2.2 5.7 6.2 59.7 50.5 34.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.3 24.8 11.7 103.9 66.1 47.9 7.4 14.5 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 10.7 10.1 90.9 63.3 44.3 3.9 7.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.2 14.1 12.9 103.2 66.4 48.8 3.9 8.0 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.1 12.5 9.6 100.9 66.0 43.8 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.8 8.4 100.1 65.1 44.1 4.3 8.8 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.1 14.2 9.8 107.2 67.0 45.9 4.3 8.3 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.4 12.9 92.6 63.6 48.0 3.6 7.5 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.8 10.0 8.5 108.8 68.5 39.3 2.0 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.7 14.1 9.9 108.5 67.8 44.2 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.5 5.4 5.7 53.6 46.7 33.6 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 17.2 16.1 115.1 69.5 53.6 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 2.4 7.5 7.2 68.2 54.1 38.1 2.9 6.4 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.7 19.4 17.3 116.9 69.6 54.1 4.7 9.7 17.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.8 8.7 86.0 61.9 42.1 2.9 5.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.8 7.6 6.6 57.7 49.7 37.8 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.2 8.9 81.2 60.0 42.3 2.8 5.7 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.6 12.9 101.4 65.7 48.4 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.1 9.9 9.3 87.4 61.9 42.1 2.9 6.3 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.2 10.4 7.3 96.2 64.1 45.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.5 7.4 8.3 77.1 57.9 39.0 2.6 5.5 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 3.1 12.0 9.7 110.7 68.8 41.2 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 26.7 17.5 120.7 70.8 54.7 6.5 13.1 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.1 6.9 7.0 67.7 54.3 38.0 2.6 5.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------