***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.09.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 13.5 5.8 84.7 62.5 43.7 4.0 8.5 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.9 14.4 7.9 102.8 67.0 48.2 4.3 8.4 14.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.4 13.0 6.8 92.3 64.0 48.2 3.9 7.9 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.9 17.1 7.4 114.7 70.0 44.7 3.2 7.6 14.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.9 15.5 8.4 123.8 72.0 50.1 3.0 6.7 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.1 11.8 9.7 119.2 70.5 49.0 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.0 16.4 8.5 111.5 69.2 47.7 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.5 23.7 10.5 130.5 73.4 52.8 4.4 9.7 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.4 14.7 9.1 122.3 71.8 52.5 3.1 6.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.5 17.2 11.1 129.1 73.3 54.2 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 16.1 8.6 141.3 75.8 51.8 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.7 14.1 7.7 129.2 73.0 49.3 2.7 6.0 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.0 12.3 7.7 117.8 70.0 48.2 2.6 5.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.4 18.6 9.9 103.4 66.7 50.2 4.0 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.1 11.4 7.2 124.6 72.7 42.0 2.0 4.5 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.8 15.2 8.2 139.9 75.1 50.1 2.5 5.8 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.8 16.7 8.8 111.4 69.2 46.2 3.8 8.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 17.5 12.7 120.5 71.1 54.8 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.5 15.0 7.3 96.8 65.2 48.3 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 14.6 21.3 14.0 119.7 70.8 53.7 5.0 10.2 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.5 14.9 7.1 102.9 66.6 47.5 4.3 8.6 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.1 17.6 8.9 105.3 67.7 48.5 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.9 7.1 94.7 64.2 47.4 4.1 8.0 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.9 16.9 10.1 110.5 68.7 52.7 3.8 8.4 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.5 14.3 6.9 93.4 64.5 45.6 4.0 8.5 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 10.4 6.4 110.2 68.4 46.1 1.9 4.8 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 14.1 7.1 93.0 64.6 45.5 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.3 11.8 7.9 131.1 73.8 45.3 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.5 26.9 13.3 118.3 70.5 54.2 6.9 13.6 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.9 13.7 7.5 98.7 65.8 48.6 4.5 8.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------