***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-14.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 44.9 50.2 33.3 101.9 61.9 56.0 24.8 38.4 55.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 47.3 48.9 36.4 98.2 59.8 52.3 29.3 41.2 54.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 50.8 57.5 36.4 105.4 63.3 57.5 30.5 44.4 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 55.8 61.6 32.9 102.1 62.5 54.0 32.6 48.0 66.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 44.0 51.9 34.8 104.4 63.3 55.3 24.9 38.4 55.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 42.9 45.6 41.1 95.8 59.7 53.0 23.0 36.4 52.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 47.0 49.6 37.0 99.2 60.1 53.2 27.7 40.5 55.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 79.0 83.8 39.8 100.2 60.2 53.0 47.7 68.9 93.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 50.6 58.4 37.6 105.8 63.8 56.4 32.1 45.3 60.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 53.6 61.0 44.4 107.0 63.6 56.1 33.1 47.4 64.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 44.3 49.6 31.7 103.0 62.6 54.0 26.2 38.6 53.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 43.6 43.2 28.2 92.6 57.6 50.1 24.2 36.8 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 44.3 43.5 30.0 89.6 56.6 50.3 25.2 37.7 53.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 68.0 79.0 49.8 110.9 65.2 59.3 44.7 61.1 80.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 32.0 37.4 30.6 105.7 64.9 54.7 14.6 24.8 38.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 44.5 47.6 30.7 99.6 61.1 52.8 24.0 37.2 53.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 48.4 53.3 39.3 103.9 62.0 54.8 31.5 43.4 57.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 55.1 66.4 54.6 113.5 66.3 59.3 33.7 48.7 66.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 50.4 53.7 36.7 101.0 61.2 54.1 31.7 44.2 58.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 62.3 69.7 55.9 105.8 62.3 56.2 37.8 54.9 74.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 47.1 53.2 32.5 100.7 61.9 55.3 26.4 40.6 58.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 55.4 62.1 40.9 105.8 62.7 56.2 36.2 49.9 65.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 49.5 57.6 40.0 110.1 65.3 58.9 31.1 43.9 58.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 59.5 70.4 47.9 112.3 65.8 59.5 38.2 53.2 70.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 48.8 52.4 36.1 99.5 60.6 53.8 25.8 40.6 59.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 38.0 33.8 23.6 81.0 53.1 46.6 20.6 31.4 44.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 50.1 54.0 37.4 100.6 61.1 54.6 28.0 42.4 59.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 35.7 41.0 32.4 107.2 64.9 55.3 20.2 30.0 42.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 82.6 95.6 57.3 112.8 65.8 58.8 53.9 73.5 95.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 43.9 47.2 37.2 102.6 62.0 55.0 27.3 38.3 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------