***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 14.0 16.5 1.2 73.0 65.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.3 13.2 16.2 0.9 69.7 62.4 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 15.3 15.7 16.3 1.2 73.7 66.1 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.4 14.2 0.7 64.5 59.5 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.8 14.0 0.8 67.1 61.4 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.7 10.8 12.5 0.9 69.5 64.0 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.2 16.2 0.9 68.5 61.3 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 6.5 6.5 12.3 0.8 68.9 63.5 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.0 14.5 1.0 71.0 63.9 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.7 12.8 0.8 69.3 63.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.5 13.8 1.0 72.9 66.0 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.9 13.3 1.0 73.0 66.6 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.7 11.8 12.8 1.0 73.4 67.0 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.9 14.6 1.1 74.8 66.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 13.5 13.6 15.2 0.9 70.0 63.3 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.3 13.5 1.0 72.8 66.2 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.4 15.5 0.7 66.0 59.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.7 12.1 0.8 69.8 63.9 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.4 16.2 1.1 72.3 64.5 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 7.5 7.5 10.7 0.8 67.3 62.7 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.6 12.8 15.6 1.0 71.4 64.3 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.7 15.7 0.9 69.8 62.2 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.7 13.2 16.1 1.2 75.8 67.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.2 14.3 1.1 74.0 66.4 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.2 14.9 1.0 71.1 63.9 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.8 11.8 12.8 0.8 69.1 63.1 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.0 14.3 15.7 1.1 72.6 64.8 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.3 14.6 0.8 67.2 61.6 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.7 11.7 0.9 71.0 65.2 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 13.6 13.8 16.5 1.0 71.2 63.7 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------