***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 13.7 15.8 1.5 76.3 69.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.2 15.7 1.4 75.1 68.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 15.0 15.6 15.8 1.7 79.8 71.8 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.2 13.4 1.1 72.3 66.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.7 12.2 13.4 1.3 76.0 69.2 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.7 11.0 11.6 1.2 74.2 67.1 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 12.9 13.2 15.7 1.3 73.8 67.2 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 6.9 7.6 11.8 1.4 79.1 71.8 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 12.9 13.5 13.9 1.5 78.9 71.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.3 12.3 1.5 79.7 72.1 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.9 13.1 1.5 80.5 72.4 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.6 11.3 12.6 1.5 79.9 72.0 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.9 11.9 1.3 76.2 68.5 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 13.2 14.0 14.1 1.7 83.3 74.3 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 13.3 13.5 14.2 1.2 73.6 67.1 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.6 12.7 1.4 78.2 70.1 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.3 15.0 1.2 71.9 65.9 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 11.4 12.2 11.7 1.5 80.8 72.8 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.3 15.8 1.6 77.9 70.0 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 7.5 8.0 10.2 1.3 76.3 69.6 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 12.6 13.1 15.0 1.5 77.7 70.3 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 12.3 12.6 15.2 1.3 75.1 68.1 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 12.3 13.2 15.7 1.8 82.2 73.1 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 12.8 13.6 13.8 1.7 82.9 74.0 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 12.7 13.1 14.2 1.4 75.1 68.6 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.8 12.1 1.2 73.2 66.8 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.7 15.0 1.4 75.8 69.0 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 11.2 11.5 13.8 1.2 73.7 67.0 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 10.7 11.5 11.2 1.5 81.4 73.4 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.6 16.0 1.5 76.3 69.1 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------