***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 9999.0 13.9 17.0 0.9 76.1 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 13.7 13.9 16.8 0.8 73.0 68.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 16.0 16.3 17.0 1.0 78.5 73.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.4 14.7 0.4 63.5 61.2 10.3 10.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.4 14.6 0.6 69.0 65.6 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.5 13.0 0.7 70.8 66.5 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.0 16.9 0.8 73.2 68.2 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 7.1 7.3 12.9 0.7 72.8 68.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 13.6 13.8 15.2 0.8 75.4 70.9 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 13.3 13.5 13.5 0.8 74.4 70.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 13.0 13.2 14.4 0.9 76.8 72.1 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 11.3 11.5 13.8 0.8 75.6 71.1 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.4 13.2 0.7 73.0 68.7 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 14.1 14.4 15.3 1.0 79.9 74.1 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 14.4 14.4 15.7 0.6 67.8 64.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.0 14.0 0.8 74.9 70.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.2 16.2 0.6 69.6 64.6 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.2 12.7 0.7 74.3 69.6 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 13.8 13.9 16.8 0.9 75.9 70.9 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.1 11.1 0.6 71.0 66.3 7.0 7.5 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.4 16.2 0.8 74.3 70.0 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 13.2 13.3 16.4 0.8 74.0 68.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 13.2 13.5 16.8 1.1 81.1 75.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 13.6 13.9 14.9 0.9 79.0 73.6 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.5 15.5 0.7 70.6 66.9 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 12.4 12.4 13.1 0.5 66.0 63.3 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.2 16.2 0.8 74.1 69.8 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 12.2 12.1 15.2 0.6 66.7 63.9 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.6 12.3 0.9 78.6 72.8 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 14.1 14.2 17.1 0.9 74.8 70.1 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------