***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 28.9 29.7 0.6 58.5 57.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.2 29.4 0.3 54.0 53.8 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 29.4 29.5 29.7 0.6 57.1 56.5 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 22.9 22.3 26.9 -0.2 47.6 48.5 21.0 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 30.4 29.9 27.6 0.0 49.8 50.6 28.5 29.9 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 28.9 28.2 24.7 -0.2 46.8 47.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.9 28.8 29.2 0.3 53.8 53.6 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 18.2 17.3 25.2 -0.4 45.0 46.2 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 29.6 29.4 28.4 0.2 52.0 52.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 29.5 29.0 26.3 -0.1 48.5 49.4 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 29.9 29.5 27.2 0.0 49.5 50.3 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 29.2 28.7 26.5 -0.1 49.0 49.7 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 30.3 30.2 26.9 0.3 53.7 53.8 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 29.2 28.9 27.8 0.1 51.9 52.1 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 30.2 29.7 28.8 0.0 49.8 50.2 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 31.0 30.9 27.4 0.3 53.4 53.7 29.1 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.4 28.9 0.2 53.1 52.8 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.4 27.7 25.3 -0.2 47.3 48.2 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.0 29.6 0.4 55.7 55.3 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 23.4 22.9 -0.7 41.6 43.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.7 29.3 29.1 0.1 50.9 51.6 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.0 29.0 28.9 0.3 54.0 53.6 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.2 29.5 0.6 57.9 57.1 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.6 27.5 0.1 51.2 51.6 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.8 29.5 28.1 0.2 52.2 52.6 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 29.8 29.4 26.2 -0.1 48.8 49.4 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 29.3 29.3 28.8 0.4 56.1 55.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 30.4 29.9 27.8 -0.1 48.9 49.7 28.5 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.0 23.2 24.4 -0.3 46.3 47.2 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.1 29.7 0.4 55.6 55.2 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------