***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 28.0 28.3 2.6 83.0 75.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 26.7 27.9 28.0 2.3 80.2 72.3 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 26.7 28.0 28.4 2.6 83.3 75.4 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 19.2 19.9 26.5 2.0 77.5 71.1 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 27.2 28.1 26.6 2.3 80.5 73.4 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 26.0 26.9 24.4 2.2 80.6 72.6 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 26.4 27.4 27.8 2.2 79.4 71.7 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 15.4 16.5 25.0 2.5 82.6 74.7 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 26.9 28.1 27.1 2.6 83.0 75.3 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 26.4 27.6 25.7 2.6 83.3 75.4 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 27.0 28.2 26.4 2.6 83.3 75.7 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 26.3 27.4 26.2 2.6 83.1 75.4 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 27.1 28.1 25.7 2.5 82.0 74.4 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 26.6 28.1 26.6 2.7 84.0 75.2 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 27.0 27.6 27.0 2.0 77.5 71.4 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 27.9 28.9 26.1 2.5 82.1 74.7 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 26.0 27.0 27.5 2.2 79.4 71.0 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 25.4 26.7 24.8 2.6 83.3 75.0 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.8 28.3 2.5 81.7 73.6 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 21.6 22.7 22.5 2.3 80.5 72.5 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 26.9 28.0 27.8 2.5 82.5 75.0 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.6 27.6 2.3 80.7 71.9 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 26.6 28.0 28.2 2.7 83.8 75.4 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 26.3 27.8 26.6 2.7 84.4 75.9 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 26.8 27.8 26.8 2.4 81.6 74.5 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 26.5 27.2 25.4 2.0 77.1 70.5 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 26.7 27.9 27.4 2.5 82.3 75.0 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 26.9 27.6 26.8 2.1 77.9 71.4 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 21.0 22.4 23.8 2.5 82.8 74.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 26.5 27.7 28.3 2.4 81.0 73.3 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------