***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 9999.0 27.4 28.5 1.9 84.4 78.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 27.3 27.9 28.3 1.7 81.5 74.9 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 27.3 28.1 28.6 1.9 84.3 78.2 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 20.5 20.6 26.4 1.3 73.5 69.7 18.6 19.4 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 28.0 28.3 26.7 1.5 77.3 72.8 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 26.8 27.1 24.3 1.3 76.0 71.3 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 27.0 27.5 28.1 1.6 81.1 74.5 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 16.1 16.4 24.8 1.4 77.0 72.2 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 27.5 28.0 27.2 1.7 81.3 76.0 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 27.2 27.7 25.7 1.6 79.7 74.6 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 27.7 28.2 26.4 1.6 79.5 74.7 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 27.1 27.5 26.0 1.6 78.6 73.8 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 28.1 28.5 25.8 1.6 79.0 74.1 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 27.2 28.0 26.7 1.8 84.0 77.1 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 28.0 28.2 27.3 1.3 74.5 70.8 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 28.7 29.1 26.2 1.6 79.3 74.5 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 26.5 27.1 27.8 1.6 81.4 73.8 24.5 25.4 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 26.2 26.6 24.7 1.6 80.3 74.7 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 27.1 27.8 28.5 1.8 83.0 76.3 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 22.3 22.6 22.4 1.2 74.2 69.3 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 27.6 28.1 28.0 1.7 81.2 75.8 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 27.0 27.7 27.8 1.7 81.8 74.4 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 27.1 27.9 28.4 2.0 85.3 78.5 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 26.9 27.6 26.7 1.8 83.8 77.5 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 27.6 28.1 27.0 1.7 80.8 75.2 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 27.5 27.7 25.4 1.2 72.4 68.6 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 27.2 27.9 27.6 1.8 83.3 77.1 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 28.0 28.1 26.9 1.3 74.0 70.3 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 21.7 22.2 23.7 1.5 80.0 73.9 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 27.2 27.8 28.5 1.8 82.3 76.0 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------