***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-25.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 5.3 6.3 74.4 58.1 43.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.4 5.4 64.0 52.1 32.7 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.4 6.7 78.3 59.0 40.3 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.9 9.3 111.1 68.5 44.2 2.6 5.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 4.7 7.3 9.9 127.7 72.8 48.6 1.8 3.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.2 7.9 8.7 91.8 63.9 38.0 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.6 6.2 5.1 59.4 51.1 33.7 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.4 17.2 10.9 123.8 72.1 47.6 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.2 10.0 7.8 97.2 65.1 36.5 2.0 5.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.5 10.3 112.2 69.2 43.7 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.3 9.7 9.5 126.1 72.8 45.7 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.3 7.6 8.9 121.4 71.7 44.6 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.3 7.7 8.4 101.6 67.4 41.3 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.5 8.1 82.0 60.0 40.4 4.2 8.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.1 9.2 9.4 121.0 70.0 48.7 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.5 9.1 8.9 114.8 70.2 41.8 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.6 5.5 65.6 54.0 36.0 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 14.6 11.6 111.9 68.7 48.1 2.9 6.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.8 5.9 68.2 54.0 34.2 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.2 13.6 12.3 113.7 69.4 47.5 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.6 8.3 6.8 83.8 60.7 36.1 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.9 8.7 5.8 62.3 51.9 33.7 3.7 8.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.5 8.4 6.5 73.0 56.5 37.0 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.9 9.2 98.1 64.8 44.9 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.1 8.0 83.2 61.0 44.5 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.7 6.4 7.5 93.4 64.3 36.2 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.6 7.3 75.8 58.4 46.2 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.7 10.0 10.7 135.3 74.5 52.3 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.5 14.6 11.7 108.5 67.6 47.7 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.4 5.4 62.5 52.3 34.5 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------