***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 4.9 5.4 64.3 54.5 33.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 1.7 5.3 6.1 73.1 56.6 32.8 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.4 6.9 5.6 70.2 56.0 34.3 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.6 7.4 3.8 45.7 44.6 28.6 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 2.7 6.4 4.5 53.2 48.6 31.2 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.4 6.1 53.7 49.2 32.7 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 2.5 7.3 6.4 74.0 57.0 33.1 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 5.3 14.9 5.7 58.0 50.2 31.2 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 2.9 6.8 4.5 53.0 49.7 31.1 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.3 8.1 5.6 55.7 50.0 31.8 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 3.0 7.4 4.3 56.2 49.4 29.6 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 2.8 8.3 4.4 57.7 50.1 29.3 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 3.4 8.4 4.9 53.4 48.9 30.1 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 3.4 10.9 8.4 83.4 60.3 37.6 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.4 3.1 2.8 41.0 42.7 27.8 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 3.2 7.5 4.4 53.7 48.3 29.6 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 2.1 7.5 6.3 79.5 57.7 32.4 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 3.5 8.8 7.5 63.0 52.0 35.5 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.7 8.1 5.9 72.3 56.2 32.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 4.1 10.5 8.4 60.6 50.6 34.8 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.7 6.4 4.3 54.4 50.3 30.8 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 3.3 10.0 6.4 78.8 57.8 33.8 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.4 7.5 6.1 75.5 57.8 33.0 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.9 8.9 7.3 75.2 57.1 36.7 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.6 6.3 5.3 54.9 50.3 33.4 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.8 6.4 4.2 53.1 49.8 31.1 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.9 5.9 60.3 52.7 33.9 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.7 5.6 3.6 46.7 45.2 28.9 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.8 14.5 8.4 65.4 52.8 35.9 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 2.2 6.6 6.0 70.9 56.1 33.2 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------