***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 13.0 4.3 59.1 50.6 33.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.6 4.9 64.9 53.6 35.6 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.7 8.0 4.5 55.7 48.2 33.6 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 3.6 9.0 5.0 54.3 51.0 33.0 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.2 5.2 58.7 52.0 35.8 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.4 8.3 75.3 59.6 40.1 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 4.3 10.5 4.9 65.3 53.9 35.3 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.4 15.1 7.6 80.1 59.0 39.3 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 7.8 5.0 57.8 50.5 35.7 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.1 9.7 6.6 67.8 54.2 38.1 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.9 5.8 71.6 56.6 35.6 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.3 6.7 85.5 61.8 37.6 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.9 9.0 7.4 82.2 61.0 38.8 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.4 11.8 6.6 66.1 52.8 37.1 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.1 5.8 4.9 61.4 54.7 33.3 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.8 6.6 75.8 58.7 36.6 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.1 10.1 4.7 62.6 53.1 35.8 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.3 11.8 8.0 68.6 54.3 41.0 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.9 10.9 4.8 62.8 52.4 35.0 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.3 15.3 10.4 78.1 58.2 44.0 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.1 8.3 4.3 54.5 49.2 33.5 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.5 5.2 68.6 55.2 37.5 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 4.1 9.2 4.9 61.1 51.1 34.3 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.1 9.7 6.4 62.7 50.8 37.0 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.3 9.6 5.2 56.1 51.4 34.6 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.4 9.9 7.1 93.1 64.3 39.1 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.6 5.2 60.8 52.3 34.5 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.5 5.6 63.3 55.1 34.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.7 19.8 8.9 71.6 55.6 42.1 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.9 9.4 4.8 63.5 52.6 35.0 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------