***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 28.6 19.9 62.7 41.7 36.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.8 32.2 22.2 68.8 39.8 33.8 27.5 40.0 55.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 27.4 37.4 21.5 67.0 40.9 35.1 31.1 45.3 62.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 31.2 44.3 22.5 66.3 44.9 36.0 33.4 49.1 67.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 23.6 35.9 24.3 73.5 47.3 38.4 24.6 38.1 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.8 34.3 31.4 73.8 46.7 37.4 23.9 37.3 53.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 24.3 32.2 22.0 66.9 39.5 33.8 27.3 40.7 57.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 46.0 70.0 30.5 82.7 50.3 40.5 48.5 69.6 94.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 29.2 38.1 21.8 65.5 41.1 34.2 32.0 45.2 60.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 30.3 41.6 28.4 74.3 44.4 36.9 32.2 46.7 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 24.3 38.1 24.0 78.4 50.0 38.6 26.0 38.1 52.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.1 40.7 25.2 84.1 53.5 40.7 25.2 37.8 53.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 23.6 38.3 27.4 78.5 49.6 38.2 25.9 38.6 53.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 40.1 55.3 31.7 79.0 43.9 36.0 44.3 61.9 81.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 14.3 24.3 21.2 70.4 49.0 39.4 14.6 25.0 38.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 23.1 37.7 25.3 77.0 49.3 37.5 25.0 38.4 54.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 28.0 36.9 22.7 70.3 41.0 34.8 31.1 44.1 59.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 33.4 44.6 35.3 78.6 44.5 38.4 34.4 50.0 67.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 27.9 37.9 22.6 70.0 40.4 33.7 32.5 45.1 60.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 38.6 54.5 41.4 82.2 47.0 40.8 40.3 57.8 78.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 24.7 31.7 19.1 61.0 39.3 33.6 27.0 41.2 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 32.6 42.6 23.8 71.7 40.8 35.3 36.1 50.6 67.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 26.9 36.0 23.8 71.9 40.5 32.9 30.2 43.7 59.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 35.3 48.2 30.0 76.8 43.5 36.8 38.9 54.2 72.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 24.3 32.4 23.3 62.5 40.4 35.5 26.2 41.4 60.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.2 34.7 24.7 82.1 53.2 41.3 21.2 32.5 46.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 26.1 34.6 23.3 63.0 40.2 35.9 28.6 43.7 62.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 20.2 31.6 24.7 76.2 51.0 40.5 20.7 30.8 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 52.0 70.2 38.6 80.4 45.6 39.5 55.3 75.9 99.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 22.9 30.3 21.5 66.4 39.4 33.8 26.2 37.7 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------