***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 12.9 14.2 17.5 0.2 53.8 52.4 13.1 14.0 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.5 16.8 -0.1 47.8 48.8 12.6 13.6 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 14.6 15.9 17.5 0.0 51.0 50.5 14.8 15.8 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.5 12.2 15.3 0.7 65.8 60.8 10.1 11.2 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.5 12.9 15.4 0.2 54.9 54.2 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 12.9 12.7 13.5 0.8 68.4 63.7 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.8 16.9 -0.1 47.6 48.5 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 8.2 7.4 13.1 0.3 56.1 55.4 6.2 7.1 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 12.7 14.2 15.6 0.4 58.8 56.9 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 14.5 14.1 14.0 0.4 59.8 57.6 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 12.3 13.5 15.1 0.2 53.6 53.6 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 10.8 11.9 14.1 0.2 53.8 54.0 11.0 11.7 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.3 13.8 0.4 59.1 58.5 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.2 14.9 -0.1 48.9 49.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.0 15.9 17.3 0.9 68.4 63.8 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.7 14.5 0.4 57.7 56.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 13.1 14.0 16.3 -0.2 45.7 47.4 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 11.2 12.5 13.0 0.3 56.0 55.0 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 12.8 13.7 16.9 -0.2 46.6 47.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 7.3 8.5 11.0 0.1 52.2 52.9 7.6 8.4 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.4 13.8 16.7 0.3 55.8 54.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 12.2 12.8 16.3 -0.4 41.6 44.2 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 12.3 13.0 16.8 -0.3 43.4 45.7 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 12.8 14.1 15.1 0.2 54.2 53.4 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.6 14.0 16.5 0.3 55.5 54.2 12.9 13.8 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 13.8 13.3 13.3 0.5 59.7 58.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 12.5 14.2 17.0 0.3 55.4 53.8 12.7 13.8 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.8 13.7 15.9 0.9 67.8 63.0 11.8 12.7 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.3 12.3 0.1 53.4 53.3 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 12.8 14.0 17.3 0.0 49.3 49.5 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------