***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 13.0 16.8 1.0 68.1 61.4 10.9 11.9 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.8 16.3 0.7 63.2 58.2 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.4 17.1 1.0 68.6 62.7 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 10.8 11.2 14.5 1.3 75.5 68.3 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.9 14.4 0.9 69.1 64.1 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 10.9 11.2 13.0 1.3 78.0 70.4 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.5 12.9 16.4 0.7 63.1 57.8 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 6.6 6.7 12.7 1.1 72.3 66.7 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.2 13.1 14.5 1.1 71.3 65.7 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 12.7 12.9 13.2 1.2 73.6 67.6 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 12.3 12.3 14.0 0.9 69.3 64.8 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.7 10.7 13.3 0.9 69.5 65.0 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.5 12.3 0.8 67.9 64.0 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.4 14.3 0.8 66.0 61.9 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 13.6 13.9 16.0 1.3 76.9 69.3 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.2 13.3 1.0 71.0 66.1 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.2 15.9 0.7 62.0 57.0 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.8 12.2 1.1 72.7 67.6 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.9 16.4 0.7 63.0 58.5 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 7.7 7.7 10.2 1.0 71.1 66.7 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.7 15.9 1.0 69.7 63.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.3 15.9 0.6 61.5 57.3 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 11.9 12.3 16.3 0.7 62.1 58.5 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 12.8 13.0 14.2 1.0 70.1 65.0 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.1 15.5 1.1 69.9 63.1 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.8 11.8 12.4 0.9 69.3 64.8 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.9 14.0 16.1 1.0 68.9 61.8 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 11.5 11.8 14.9 1.4 77.8 70.1 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.7 11.7 1.0 71.2 66.5 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 12.8 13.4 16.7 0.8 64.7 59.3 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------