***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.0 15.4 0.3 54.7 53.2 10.8 11.7 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 10.2 11.6 14.9 0.1 52.4 51.9 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 12.6 14.0 15.5 0.3 54.8 53.4 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.4 13.1 0.7 62.1 57.7 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.7 12.9 0.3 55.7 53.5 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.3 11.5 0.7 63.0 58.2 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.9 15.0 0.1 52.0 51.5 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.8 11.1 0.3 56.2 54.6 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.1 13.1 0.3 56.5 54.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.8 11.7 0.4 57.1 54.9 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.2 12.5 0.3 55.4 53.3 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.8 11.8 0.3 56.3 54.5 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.6 11.0 0.4 57.3 55.2 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.0 12.8 0.1 51.0 51.0 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.0 14.5 0.8 64.6 59.4 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.3 11.9 0.5 59.1 56.0 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.1 14.6 0.1 51.8 51.6 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.4 10.8 0.3 56.9 55.1 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.8 15.0 0.1 52.0 51.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.6 8.8 0.3 56.4 55.1 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.5 14.5 0.3 55.1 53.3 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.9 11.1 14.5 0.1 51.3 51.2 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.8 11.1 14.9 0.0 50.5 50.6 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.7 12.8 0.3 55.5 54.0 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.8 14.1 0.4 56.3 54.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.0 11.1 0.6 60.8 57.8 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.2 14.8 0.4 56.4 54.3 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.9 13.4 0.8 64.8 59.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.6 10.3 0.3 55.4 54.0 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.1 15.2 0.2 52.8 52.1 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------