***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.7 17.1 0.5 64.9 59.1 12.8 13.3 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.3 16.5 0.2 57.6 54.2 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.7 17.2 0.4 62.2 57.7 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 11.6 12.0 14.9 0.9 78.6 69.4 10.3 10.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.2 14.9 0.4 64.2 59.2 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.7 13.1 0.9 78.5 70.4 10.5 10.9 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.5 16.6 0.2 55.6 52.8 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 7.1 7.2 12.8 0.5 69.4 63.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.5 15.0 0.6 68.4 62.6 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 13.3 13.4 13.5 0.6 71.7 65.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.7 14.4 0.3 60.5 57.0 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.2 13.7 0.4 65.0 60.6 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 13.0 0.4 62.5 59.1 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.8 14.6 0.3 59.6 56.6 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.8 16.6 0.9 78.4 69.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.7 13.8 0.5 65.0 60.4 12.8 13.3 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 16.1 0.1 54.4 52.0 13.2 13.6 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 11.9 12.0 12.6 0.5 69.6 64.1 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.4 16.6 0.2 56.7 53.9 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 8.0 8.0 10.7 0.5 68.5 63.7 7.0 7.5 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.1 16.2 0.5 65.1 60.0 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 16.1 0.0 51.5 50.3 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.7 16.5 0.1 53.1 51.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.5 14.6 0.4 65.8 61.0 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.4 16.0 0.5 66.6 60.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.4 12.7 0.5 67.4 62.9 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 13.6 13.9 16.5 0.5 66.9 60.5 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 12.2 12.6 15.3 1.0 79.5 70.6 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.2 12.0 0.5 68.3 63.0 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.7 16.9 0.3 59.1 55.2 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------