***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.6 30.1 1.2 64.9 62.8 28.1 29.5 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 29.3 29.0 29.3 0.1 51.9 51.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 29.4 29.7 29.9 0.7 58.5 57.6 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 24.4 25.0 28.1 2.3 77.8 74.2 21.0 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 30.4 30.9 28.4 0.9 61.1 60.0 28.5 29.9 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 30.4 30.6 26.9 1.8 74.1 71.5 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 28.9 28.5 29.0 0.0 50.5 50.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 19.3 19.0 26.8 1.2 65.1 63.5 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 29.6 30.2 29.2 1.0 61.9 60.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.6 30.5 27.6 1.4 67.1 65.0 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 30.0 30.0 28.7 0.5 55.9 55.6 28.1 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.7 27.9 0.8 60.4 59.6 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 31.4 30.8 28.7 0.8 61.1 60.2 28.4 29.9 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 29.2 28.6 27.5 -0.2 47.2 47.7 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 31.3 31.5 30.8 1.7 71.0 68.9 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 32.1 31.6 28.6 0.9 62.1 60.9 29.1 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.6 27.7 28.1 -0.4 44.3 45.1 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 28.4 29.0 26.3 1.1 63.0 61.3 26.6 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.6 29.4 0.1 51.7 51.4 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 25.6 25.4 24.7 1.2 64.8 63.3 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 29.7 30.2 29.8 0.9 61.4 60.3 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.1 27.9 -0.7 41.5 42.7 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 29.0 28.5 29.2 -0.1 48.2 48.7 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.1 28.3 0.6 57.2 56.3 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 29.8 30.5 28.9 1.1 63.5 61.8 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 30.9 30.6 27.8 1.1 64.1 62.8 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.4 30.1 29.4 1.2 65.2 63.0 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 31.7 32.2 29.3 2.1 75.5 72.5 28.5 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 24.0 24.5 25.6 0.9 61.1 59.8 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.1 29.6 0.4 55.6 54.8 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------