***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.08.2019.-01.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 24.3 26.7 28.1 0.2 52.4 51.1 24.8 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 24.2 25.8 27.5 -0.4 44.1 45.0 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 24.3 26.0 28.0 -0.3 46.5 47.3 24.8 26.3 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 20.3 20.9 26.2 0.9 63.6 59.0 18.3 19.7 21.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.3 26.9 26.4 -0.2 47.4 48.2 25.7 27.2 28.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.7 24.8 0.5 58.1 56.2 24.8 26.1 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 23.9 25.6 27.4 -0.4 43.9 45.0 24.6 26.1 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.2 24.7 -0.3 46.0 46.8 14.2 15.5 16.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 24.7 26.5 27.1 0.0 49.9 49.8 25.0 26.5 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 24.7 26.5 25.5 0.1 51.0 50.4 25.0 26.5 27.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 24.9 26.2 26.5 -0.6 41.9 44.4 25.3 26.9 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.4 25.7 26.0 -0.5 43.4 45.1 24.8 26.3 27.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 25.5 26.8 26.2 -0.4 44.7 46.5 25.8 27.3 28.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 24.1 25.1 25.6 -0.9 37.7 41.2 24.6 26.2 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.2 28.4 0.8 61.6 58.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 26.1 27.6 26.4 -0.2 47.1 48.1 26.4 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 23.4 24.8 26.8 -0.6 41.1 42.9 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 23.8 25.3 24.4 -0.2 47.5 48.1 24.1 25.5 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 24.1 25.5 27.6 -0.5 42.6 44.2 24.6 26.2 27.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.2 22.3 -0.4 44.4 45.8 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 24.4 26.3 27.6 -0.1 48.1 48.6 25.0 26.5 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 23.9 25.0 26.7 -0.8 38.5 41.1 24.5 26.1 27.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 24.2 25.2 27.4 -0.9 38.6 41.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 24.0 25.5 26.2 -0.4 44.3 45.9 24.4 26.0 27.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 24.6 26.8 26.7 0.2 52.4 51.3 25.1 26.6 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 27.6 26.8 25.9 -0.2 46.9 47.7 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 24.3 26.5 27.3 0.2 53.6 51.9 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.9 28.3 27.2 0.8 62.3 58.7 26.0 27.4 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 19.2 20.5 23.4 -0.5 43.5 45.4 19.5 21.0 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 24.1 25.9 27.8 -0.3 45.9 46.3 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------