***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 26.3 26.1 27.8 1.3 66.8 61.6 23.0 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.8 27.3 0.9 61.8 58.1 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 26.3 26.1 28.1 1.3 66.2 61.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 19.1 19.8 26.5 2.1 76.4 69.0 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.8 26.8 26.4 1.4 68.0 62.7 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 25.7 26.3 24.6 1.9 74.8 67.9 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 25.1 25.4 27.2 0.8 60.6 57.3 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.1 15.0 25.2 1.4 67.8 62.3 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 26.5 26.7 26.9 1.7 70.5 64.5 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 26.1 26.3 25.8 1.8 71.5 65.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 25.5 26.3 26.4 1.2 65.6 61.0 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.6 26.4 1.2 65.0 60.5 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.7 25.6 1.4 67.2 62.3 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.5 25.6 0.8 60.6 57.5 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 26.8 27.5 27.5 2.1 76.3 69.1 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.5 26.3 1.5 69.4 63.9 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.9 26.7 0.7 58.7 56.1 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 25.2 25.3 25.0 1.6 69.8 63.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.6 27.5 0.9 61.8 58.1 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.4 21.3 22.5 1.3 67.1 61.5 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 26.4 26.4 27.4 1.4 68.0 62.6 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.3 26.7 0.7 58.7 56.1 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.4 27.5 0.8 59.8 56.8 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.8 26.2 1.3 66.5 61.5 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 26.4 26.6 26.3 1.6 70.3 64.2 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.4 26.4 26.2 1.4 67.8 63.0 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 26.3 26.4 26.9 1.5 68.8 63.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 26.8 27.5 26.9 2.2 76.8 69.5 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.7 20.6 23.8 1.3 66.2 60.8 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.8 27.5 1.1 63.3 59.2 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------