***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.9 25.6 0.3 53.8 52.9 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.8 25.4 0.1 51.3 51.1 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.0 26.0 0.3 53.6 53.0 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.9 24.2 1.0 62.3 59.0 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.6 24.3 0.4 54.7 53.8 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.9 22.3 0.8 59.2 56.6 22.4 24.0 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.4 25.3 0.1 50.6 50.8 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.9 22.9 0.4 54.0 53.3 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.3 24.6 0.5 56.3 55.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.0 23.6 0.6 56.9 55.5 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.1 24.2 0.2 52.8 52.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.3 24.1 0.2 52.3 52.1 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.4 23.3 0.3 53.2 52.7 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.1 24.6 23.7 -0.1 49.2 49.9 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.4 25.3 1.1 63.2 59.7 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.2 24.0 0.5 55.4 54.3 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.3 23.7 24.9 0.0 49.8 49.9 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.2 24.0 22.8 0.5 55.4 54.5 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.5 25.6 0.1 51.0 50.9 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.0 20.4 0.3 53.1 52.6 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.4 25.2 0.4 54.5 53.6 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.3 24.8 -0.1 49.0 49.2 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.5 25.6 -0.1 49.3 49.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.6 24.1 0.3 53.2 53.0 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.3 24.1 0.5 56.4 54.6 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.3 23.8 0.4 54.9 53.7 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.1 24.8 0.4 55.3 53.9 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.9 26.4 24.7 1.1 63.0 59.6 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 19.3 21.7 0.3 53.1 52.8 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.6 25.5 0.2 51.9 51.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------