***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 26.6 27.0 27.9 0.7 64.4 59.8 25.4 26.3 27.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.3 27.4 0.2 53.7 52.0 25.3 26.2 27.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 26.5 26.6 28.0 0.5 59.7 56.5 25.4 26.2 27.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 20.4 20.9 26.2 1.6 78.4 70.9 18.6 19.4 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.5 26.4 0.6 61.8 57.8 26.0 26.9 27.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 26.6 27.0 24.7 1.3 73.9 67.0 24.8 25.7 26.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.9 27.2 0.1 52.4 51.0 25.0 25.8 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.7 24.9 0.7 62.5 58.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 26.6 27.0 26.9 0.8 64.5 60.0 25.5 26.3 27.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.4 27.0 25.6 1.0 67.4 62.3 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.9 26.4 0.3 56.3 53.6 25.7 26.6 27.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.2 26.3 26.1 0.4 58.1 54.9 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 27.2 27.4 25.9 0.5 60.0 56.4 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 26.4 26.0 25.6 -0.1 48.2 48.3 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 27.8 28.2 28.0 1.4 75.6 68.9 26.1 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 27.8 28.1 26.3 0.7 62.8 58.4 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 24.4 25.3 26.7 -0.1 48.1 48.0 24.5 25.4 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.8 24.6 0.8 63.8 59.6 24.4 25.2 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.0 27.5 0.2 53.0 51.7 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.9 22.5 0.6 61.3 57.6 20.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 26.7 27.0 27.5 0.7 62.4 58.3 25.6 26.4 27.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 26.3 25.7 26.5 -0.2 45.8 46.4 25.0 25.9 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.9 27.4 -0.1 48.7 48.6 25.1 26.0 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 26.1 26.2 26.2 0.4 58.4 55.7 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 26.7 27.2 26.5 0.8 65.9 60.9 25.5 26.4 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.9 27.2 25.9 0.7 62.7 58.5 25.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 26.4 26.9 27.1 0.8 66.2 60.9 25.3 26.1 26.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 27.9 28.3 27.0 1.5 77.6 70.3 26.2 27.0 27.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.0 21.1 23.6 0.5 59.4 56.3 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.3 27.6 0.3 56.6 54.1 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------