***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-25.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.1 5.2 5.9 63.8 54.3 36.0 2.2 4.5 7.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.8 7.8 93.9 64.5 43.2 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.0 5.0 53.0 48.8 33.5 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.2 4.4 4.2 42.9 43.8 28.3 2.6 5.8 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.4 2.6 3.8 42.1 42.6 27.6 1.8 3.4 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 1.4 3.7 4.4 46.3 44.9 28.1 2.2 4.7 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.5 11.8 8.2 95.4 64.9 44.1 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 3.7 5.8 5.1 39.7 42.2 30.6 3.7 7.8 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 2.0 2.6 3.2 33.0 36.7 26.8 2.0 5.2 10.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.4 3.3 4.6 35.3 39.2 29.5 2.4 4.9 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 1.8 3.2 3.8 40.5 42.8 26.4 2.0 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 1.8 2.8 3.4 36.0 40.7 26.9 2.1 3.9 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.5 3.0 3.2 38.3 41.9 27.0 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.2 7.0 52.9 48.5 36.9 4.2 8.8 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.3 3.1 3.5 39.1 43.2 22.7 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 1.8 3.8 3.7 42.5 44.4 26.6 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.2 13.8 10.0 121.6 71.5 49.3 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.1 6.3 43.9 42.9 34.9 2.9 6.8 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.8 7.4 81.9 60.9 41.5 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 2.7 5.5 7.6 52.1 47.1 36.5 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.3 3.9 3.8 38.5 41.4 28.5 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.6 16.8 9.8 111.7 69.3 47.9 3.7 8.1 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.0 8.4 7.4 69.9 56.6 39.8 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.7 5.4 44.9 44.1 33.4 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.1 5.4 6.2 63.3 53.3 33.7 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.6 3.0 2.9 38.3 42.4 26.8 2.0 3.9 6.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.2 8.3 6.8 71.8 56.8 36.2 3.5 6.7 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.6 3.2 3.5 37.1 41.4 24.3 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 6.6 7.6 53.6 47.8 38.6 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.8 6.8 78.2 59.6 39.8 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------