***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 2.2 8.2 7.8 90.1 62.8 38.9 2.3 5.0 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.5 6.7 74.7 57.7 42.1 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.4 9.3 8.3 93.9 64.1 40.5 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.6 14.7 8.3 90.3 63.6 36.1 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 2.8 11.1 7.9 99.2 65.4 37.7 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.4 10.6 7.8 80.0 58.9 37.7 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.2 6.1 71.6 56.2 41.1 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.9 24.7 9.1 98.9 64.7 41.5 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.5 12.2 8.9 109.0 68.1 40.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.7 10.2 107.5 67.6 43.2 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.4 12.0 7.5 101.3 66.0 39.6 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.4 12.2 6.5 85.0 60.6 36.6 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 4.0 11.5 6.6 78.6 58.9 36.1 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.4 12.4 102.2 66.4 45.3 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.6 7.3 6.4 80.8 61.2 34.1 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 3.6 11.7 6.8 84.9 61.3 37.0 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.6 7.1 76.5 58.0 41.4 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 3.9 15.2 12.4 107.7 67.3 45.8 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.3 9.4 7.5 83.6 60.5 42.4 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.2 17.6 12.2 102.1 65.5 43.5 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.0 10.9 8.2 101.2 66.1 38.7 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.3 8.6 88.5 62.0 45.6 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.7 9.4 8.6 96.0 64.3 42.2 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 3.1 13.4 11.6 107.8 67.8 46.2 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.4 10.1 8.0 88.0 62.1 37.0 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 2.9 7.8 5.5 70.2 55.5 33.9 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.3 8.0 7.7 83.4 60.7 38.0 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.8 9.4 7.2 84.3 61.7 35.1 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.4 23.4 13.1 107.1 67.0 45.9 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.2 6.9 77.6 58.7 41.3 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------