***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.5 17.0 10.7 93.6 63.9 45.5 4.9 10.2 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.0 17.1 10.3 107.8 67.6 49.7 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 4.4 17.0 12.0 110.5 68.3 46.9 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.0 14.6 10.4 91.0 64.1 42.9 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.9 13.8 11.3 105.6 67.8 43.6 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.9 9.6 11.4 91.8 63.7 44.5 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.9 16.4 10.1 101.5 66.0 49.1 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 5.8 19.6 12.2 105.6 67.0 45.4 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 14.7 12.5 112.0 69.2 45.9 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.4 14.7 13.3 107.2 67.6 45.4 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.9 11.9 10.6 104.7 67.4 43.1 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.1 9.8 102.4 66.3 43.2 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.1 10.1 94.5 64.6 43.7 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.2 20.3 13.8 105.0 66.5 47.3 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.1 8.2 8.7 86.1 63.5 41.0 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.1 10.7 9.9 94.6 64.7 41.5 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.4 16.7 10.1 101.7 66.1 47.7 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 18.3 15.0 109.6 68.0 46.9 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.3 18.4 10.5 108.4 67.5 49.0 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.9 21.6 15.5 111.1 68.2 49.8 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.4 16.1 12.2 108.2 68.2 45.0 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.0 17.0 10.6 102.9 66.2 48.7 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.5 15.1 10.6 104.5 66.3 46.0 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.7 19.0 14.0 113.8 69.1 47.6 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.6 14.5 10.7 88.8 62.9 44.0 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 2.7 11.3 10.0 106.0 67.9 44.2 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.1 15.6 10.7 89.2 62.6 45.0 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.6 9.1 10.1 92.8 65.0 42.7 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.3 28.0 15.1 107.1 67.3 47.7 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.4 16.0 10.8 108.1 67.6 49.4 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------