***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.08.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 47.1 44.8 35.0 88.9 55.7 48.4 25.1 39.2 56.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 45.3 48.7 36.0 96.7 59.7 52.4 27.5 40.0 55.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 52.5 53.7 37.4 94.1 58.3 49.2 31.1 45.3 62.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 58.3 53.1 33.2 82.2 53.8 45.6 33.4 49.1 67.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 46.4 46.0 34.3 92.2 58.0 47.8 24.6 38.1 54.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 22.8 39.8 35.5 84.7 52.8 45.2 23.9 37.3 53.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 46.1 50.1 35.3 96.7 59.7 53.2 27.3 40.7 57.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 82.4 80.8 40.9 94.0 57.5 48.2 48.5 69.6 94.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 52.8 50.2 35.3 89.0 55.6 46.0 32.0 45.2 60.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 54.9 52.9 41.9 91.9 56.4 47.5 32.2 46.7 63.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 45.0 46.1 34.4 95.1 59.3 49.0 26.0 38.1 52.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 45.3 45.6 33.0 94.4 58.8 47.8 25.2 37.8 53.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 26.1 46.7 33.4 93.7 59.1 49.2 25.9 38.6 53.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 70.3 68.8 47.6 92.1 56.2 48.6 44.3 61.9 81.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.0 26.9 27.3 75.9 52.8 43.4 14.6 25.0 38.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 47.0 45.4 32.3 90.3 57.5 48.0 25.0 38.4 54.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 49.9 54.6 38.4 101.0 61.7 54.5 31.1 44.1 59.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 58.8 55.5 48.0 92.5 55.5 48.1 34.4 50.0 67.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 50.2 54.1 37.4 97.8 60.1 52.0 32.5 45.1 60.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 40.3 65.3 50.1 94.9 56.3 50.2 40.3 57.8 78.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 49.7 47.1 35.3 89.2 56.3 46.8 27.0 41.2 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 56.7 62.5 40.9 102.3 62.0 54.2 36.1 50.6 67.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 48.6 53.7 39.7 99.3 60.7 51.4 30.2 43.7 59.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 62.5 62.0 44.9 95.3 57.5 48.4 38.9 54.2 72.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 51.0 46.5 36.2 86.5 54.6 47.4 26.2 41.4 60.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 19.7 40.4 30.7 95.4 59.8 49.0 21.2 32.5 46.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 52.6 49.0 36.6 87.8 55.0 48.0 28.6 43.7 62.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 20.8 33.4 30.5 80.0 53.8 44.4 20.7 30.8 43.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 87.3 85.5 51.5 96.0 57.1 50.2 55.3 75.9 99.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 42.5 44.9 35.8 95.3 58.9 51.4 26.2 37.7 51.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------