***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 14.9 18.0 2.0 93.7 87.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 13.8 15.0 17.9 2.0 94.3 86.7 12.3 12.9 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 16.1 17.2 18.0 2.1 95.5 89.3 14.7 15.2 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 11.6 12.5 15.7 1.6 90.2 84.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 12.5 13.4 15.6 1.7 92.8 86.8 11.2 11.7 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 11.5 12.2 13.8 1.7 92.5 87.0 10.4 10.8 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 14.0 14.9 17.9 1.9 93.4 85.9 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 7.2 8.3 13.9 1.9 95.0 89.2 5.9 6.4 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 13.6 14.5 16.0 1.8 94.2 88.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 13.4 14.2 14.4 1.8 94.6 88.5 12.2 12.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 13.0 14.0 15.2 1.8 94.4 88.6 11.8 12.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 11.4 12.3 14.8 1.9 95.3 90.1 10.3 10.7 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 12.4 13.2 14.1 1.7 93.1 87.9 11.2 11.6 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 14.1 15.3 16.2 2.1 96.7 91.2 12.9 13.3 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 14.5 15.2 16.7 1.6 90.6 85.0 13.3 13.8 14.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 13.9 14.8 14.9 1.8 93.5 88.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 14.2 15.1 17.3 1.8 94.3 85.9 13.0 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 12.1 13.2 13.6 1.8 94.4 88.2 10.7 11.2 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 13.8 14.7 18.0 2.2 95.9 89.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 8.1 9.0 12.1 1.7 93.1 86.4 6.9 7.4 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 13.3 14.1 17.1 1.8 92.7 86.3 12.1 12.5 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 13.2 14.1 17.5 2.0 95.6 88.3 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.4 18.0 2.5 97.8 92.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 13.7 14.8 15.9 2.1 96.5 91.0 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 13.6 14.3 16.5 1.8 92.8 86.2 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 12.6 13.3 14.3 1.8 92.9 88.0 11.5 11.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 14.1 15.2 17.2 1.8 92.7 85.8 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 12.3 12.9 16.1 1.5 89.1 83.6 11.0 11.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 11.3 12.4 13.1 1.8 94.8 88.3 10.0 10.5 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 14.1 15.1 18.2 2.0 94.1 87.0 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------