***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 9999.0 18.9 20.7 2.6 90.1 87.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 16.6 18.5 20.8 3.0 93.8 90.6 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 19.1 20.9 20.8 2.9 93.4 90.7 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 14.7 16.0 18.4 2.3 88.9 84.7 12.0 13.1 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 14.7 15.9 18.4 2.3 92.2 88.3 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 13.6 14.5 16.2 2.2 89.9 86.1 11.8 12.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 16.8 18.3 20.9 2.9 92.2 89.0 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 9.9 11.6 16.4 2.4 94.1 90.8 7.3 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 16.1 17.4 18.6 2.2 92.0 88.6 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 15.8 17.2 17.1 2.3 94.0 90.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 15.2 16.3 17.7 2.1 91.9 88.2 13.2 13.9 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 13.5 14.7 17.1 2.3 93.2 90.2 11.6 12.3 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 14.5 15.6 16.6 2.2 91.8 88.3 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 16.6 18.3 19.2 2.8 95.0 92.6 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 16.9 17.6 19.3 1.8 83.7 80.3 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 16.4 17.7 17.5 2.3 92.1 88.3 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 17.0 19.1 20.6 3.2 96.0 92.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 14.1 15.5 16.0 2.2 93.1 90.2 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 16.4 18.3 21.1 3.3 95.9 93.1 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 9.9 11.0 14.2 2.2 93.3 90.5 8.2 8.8 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 15.7 16.6 19.7 2.1 88.1 85.3 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 4 96 100 15.8 18.1 21.0 3.4 97.2 94.6 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 15.8 18.3 21.4 3.8 98.2 96.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 16.1 17.8 18.7 2.7 94.9 92.3 14.0 14.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 16.1 17.0 19.2 2.1 87.4 84.3 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 14.9 15.8 16.3 2.2 89.9 85.9 13.1 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 17.0 18.1 19.6 2.2 86.3 83.4 14.0 15.1 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 14.4 15.1 18.7 2.0 85.2 81.5 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 14.3 16.3 15.4 2.3 95.0 91.9 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 17.1 18.6 21.0 2.8 92.2 89.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------