***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2012.-02.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 17.3 19.0 2.5 91.2 82.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 14.8 16.3 18.8 2.3 90.1 80.4 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 17.1 18.9 19.0 2.6 92.9 84.6 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 12.4 13.7 16.6 1.8 86.1 77.4 9.8 10.9 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 13.7 15.0 16.5 2.0 88.6 80.4 11.4 12.4 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 12.7 13.9 14.9 2.0 89.4 81.1 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 15.0 16.3 18.8 2.2 89.4 79.6 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 8.2 9.8 15.0 2.3 91.4 82.4 5.9 6.9 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 14.8 16.2 17.1 2.3 91.1 83.2 12.6 13.4 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 14.5 15.8 15.4 2.2 90.8 82.5 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 14.3 15.8 16.3 2.3 91.9 83.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 13 87 100 12.7 14.3 15.9 2.4 92.9 85.1 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 13.8 14.9 15.1 2.1 89.6 82.9 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 15.4 17.2 17.2 2.7 94.9 86.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 15.9 17.0 17.7 2.1 88.4 79.1 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 15.3 16.6 15.9 2.1 90.5 82.9 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 15.1 16.2 18.0 1.9 87.3 76.7 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 13.1 14.5 14.7 2.3 91.8 83.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 14.9 16.3 18.9 2.5 92.1 83.0 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 9.1 10.3 13.1 2.0 89.1 78.9 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 14.4 15.8 18.1 2.3 90.6 82.2 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 14.1 15.3 18.1 2.1 89.4 79.3 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 14.4 16.2 18.9 2.9 94.7 86.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 14.9 16.7 17.0 2.6 94.5 86.6 12.7 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 14.7 16.2 17.5 2.3 90.9 81.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 13.8 14.8 15.5 2.2 89.3 83.3 11.8 12.6 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 15.1 16.9 18.2 2.4 91.2 81.7 12.4 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 13.7 14.8 17.0 1.9 86.3 77.9 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 12.2 14.0 14.1 2.2 91.8 82.3 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 15.2 16.7 19.1 2.4 91.0 81.9 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------