***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 13.7 16.9 1.7 77.0 69.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.3 16.6 1.4 74.8 66.5 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 15.3 15.9 16.7 1.7 78.7 70.6 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 10.6 10.9 14.7 1.3 73.9 68.3 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 11.7 12.2 14.4 1.4 76.2 69.9 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 10.9 11.2 12.8 1.4 75.7 70.6 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 13.0 13.3 16.6 1.4 73.8 66.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 6.4 7.0 12.8 1.6 78.6 71.4 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.5 14.9 1.7 79.3 72.0 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 12.7 13.1 13.2 1.5 78.1 71.0 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 12.3 12.8 14.1 1.6 79.1 72.1 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 10.7 11.3 13.7 1.7 80.4 73.1 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.7 12.1 13.0 1.4 77.1 71.3 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.9 14.8 1.5 77.3 68.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 13.6 13.9 15.7 1.5 78.3 72.1 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.6 13.8 1.5 77.5 71.5 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.4 15.9 1.1 70.3 62.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 11.6 12.2 12.5 1.5 77.5 70.0 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.0 13.4 16.6 1.6 77.0 68.4 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 7.7 8.1 11.0 1.4 75.3 68.6 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.5 13.0 15.9 1.6 77.8 70.5 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.6 15.9 1.3 72.7 64.8 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 12.5 13.1 16.5 1.7 79.7 70.8 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.4 14.6 1.6 78.8 70.6 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 12.9 13.5 15.3 1.6 77.0 69.9 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 11.9 12.3 13.2 1.4 77.3 71.7 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 13.7 14.5 16.1 1.6 76.7 69.3 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.6 15.1 1.3 74.9 69.5 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 10.6 11.1 12.0 1.5 77.3 69.5 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.9 16.9 1.6 76.5 68.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------