***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2012.-26.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 34.0 34.6 6.1 98.4 96.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 30.7 35.2 35.3 6.8 99.0 97.5 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 30.9 35.5 35.2 6.7 98.9 97.6 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 24.7 28.0 32.1 5.5 96.7 94.4 20.9 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 32.1 36.4 33.2 6.1 98.2 96.7 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 30.7 33.9 30.0 5.4 96.2 94.7 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 30.3 34.4 34.7 6.3 98.6 96.8 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 19.9 24.1 31.5 6.6 98.2 97.4 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 31.3 36.1 34.2 6.6 98.9 97.8 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.3 36.0 32.7 6.9 98.9 98.0 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 31.7 36.0 33.0 6.4 98.3 97.1 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 31.0 35.1 32.4 6.4 97.9 97.0 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 32.2 36.2 32.4 6.3 97.9 97.0 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 30.7 36.3 34.7 7.8 99.6 99.0 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 31.9 35.0 33.4 5.1 95.9 93.2 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 32.8 37.0 32.7 6.1 97.9 96.7 28.9 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 30.0 34.9 34.9 6.9 99.4 97.9 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 30.1 35.3 32.2 7.5 99.3 98.7 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 30.4 35.4 35.8 7.3 99.3 98.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 26.4 31.3 29.8 6.9 98.8 98.3 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 31.3 35.4 34.4 6.0 98.0 96.2 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 30.4 35.7 35.2 7.3 99.6 98.3 27.1 28.3 29.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 30.4 35.8 36.1 7.9 99.6 98.9 27.0 28.3 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 30.6 36.1 34.1 7.5 99.4 98.7 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 31.4 35.2 32.9 5.5 97.5 95.2 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.6 34.7 31.4 5.7 96.3 95.5 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 30.8 34.6 33.5 5.7 98.0 95.9 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 32.2 35.3 32.6 5.3 95.8 93.5 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 25.8 31.4 31.4 7.5 99.4 98.9 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 30.6 34.8 35.2 6.6 98.7 97.1 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------