***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 26.9 28.0 2.4 78.9 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 26.5 27.4 27.9 2.3 78.2 69.8 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.5 28.1 2.5 80.6 72.4 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 19.1 20.0 26.6 2.3 78.8 72.4 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 27.0 28.1 26.6 2.5 80.7 73.5 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 25.9 27.4 25.0 3.0 86.1 78.9 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 26.1 27.0 27.7 2.2 77.7 69.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 15.3 16.6 25.2 2.9 84.5 75.8 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 26.5 27.8 26.9 2.6 81.7 73.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 26.1 27.5 25.7 2.8 83.9 75.3 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 26.8 28.3 26.5 2.9 84.4 76.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 26.0 27.4 26.3 2.9 84.6 76.3 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 26.9 28.3 26.0 3.0 84.8 77.1 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 26.4 27.6 26.3 2.7 82.2 72.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 26.9 27.8 27.2 2.5 80.6 74.2 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 27.5 28.9 26.3 2.9 84.1 76.6 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 25.7 26.5 27.3 2.2 77.4 68.7 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 25.4 26.7 24.9 2.8 83.6 74.4 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 26.2 27.3 28.0 2.5 79.8 71.0 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 21.6 22.8 22.8 2.7 82.8 73.8 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 26.4 27.5 27.5 2.4 79.2 72.0 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 26.2 27.1 27.4 2.3 78.4 69.3 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 26.3 27.6 27.9 2.7 82.0 72.8 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 26.1 27.5 26.4 2.8 83.3 74.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.4 26.6 2.4 78.9 72.1 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 26.4 27.6 25.9 2.7 82.9 75.4 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.2 27.2 2.4 78.8 71.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 26.8 27.7 26.9 2.4 79.8 73.4 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 21.1 22.3 23.8 2.7 83.0 73.6 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 26.3 27.3 28.1 2.4 78.9 70.7 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------