***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 27.4 26.5 2.3 77.1 68.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 26.3 27.2 26.6 2.3 78.4 68.0 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 26.6 27.4 26.7 2.5 79.2 69.4 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 19.7 20.2 25.0 2.1 75.1 67.3 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 27.2 27.8 25.1 2.3 77.2 68.6 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 26.1 27.3 23.4 2.6 80.8 71.9 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 25.9 26.7 26.3 2.1 77.4 67.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 15.5 16.5 23.7 2.6 80.7 70.8 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 26.8 27.6 25.5 2.5 78.8 69.6 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 26.5 27.4 24.3 2.7 80.7 70.8 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 26.9 27.8 24.9 2.6 80.2 70.7 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 26.2 27.3 24.8 2.6 80.8 71.1 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 27.2 28.3 24.5 2.7 81.0 71.6 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 26.6 27.7 25.3 2.8 82.4 71.3 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 27.1 27.7 25.6 2.1 76.5 68.4 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 27.8 28.8 24.8 2.6 79.8 70.6 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 25.2 26.2 26.1 2.2 79.3 68.2 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 25.6 26.6 23.6 2.8 81.8 71.3 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 26.1 27.1 26.8 2.5 80.0 69.3 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 21.7 22.7 21.4 2.6 80.8 70.2 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 26.8 27.4 26.1 2.3 77.1 68.4 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 26.0 27.1 26.3 2.5 81.0 69.5 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 26.2 27.4 26.8 2.8 82.0 70.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 26.3 27.4 25.2 2.8 82.1 71.4 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 26.6 27.2 25.1 2.2 76.6 68.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 27.0 27.8 24.3 2.4 78.9 70.0 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 26.4 27.0 25.7 2.2 76.9 68.0 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 27.1 27.6 25.3 2.1 75.5 67.6 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 20.9 21.9 22.6 2.7 81.6 70.9 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 26.2 27.0 26.7 2.3 78.1 68.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------